The CIA was charged with accurately assessing the threat to national security posed by enemies of the United States, principally the Soviet Union. The agency was staffed by professionals whose careers were served by having to confront a powerful enemy, armed with lots of tanks. But neither their training nor their general perspective on life equipped those in the so-called intelligence services to see the real weaknesses of the Soviet system, such as the impossibility of finding a decent hairdresser or car mechanic. So they were unable to predict the fall of communism.
The financial services industry in the Anglo-Saxon countries is the most lightly regulated across all the developed economies. The public authorities allowed the leaders of this industry to opt for a self-serving approach dignified with the epithet of “self-regulation.” In fact it amounted to turning a blind eye to imprudent practices which were making many punters obscene amounts of money. Everyone, including the regulators, were riding the same bull market, cashing-in on the same up-escalator, blowing up the same unsustainable bubble. Nobody stopped Bernard Madoff before he had defrauded billions of dollars using the oldest trick in the book. Nobody thought to point out that lending money to people who would not be able to pay their mortgages could only lead to tragedy. Are you surprised therefore that the financial services industry triggered a global crisis which led to the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression?
When you rely for information and clear judgement on those who have a material interest in looking at the world in a particular way, would you expect to get good advice? Why then ask the International Energy Agency to be the guardian of truth when it comes to figures about oil production and reserves.? Who stands to gain from pedalling inflated figures for future oil production and “proven” reserves? Oil companies? Leading oil-producing countries. Dominant oil-dependent economies? So take more than a pinch of salt when you try to digest predictions from the International Energy Agency. And get ready for the downturn now. We only need a few quarters of falling production when demand is rising to give us a clear picture. The oil ecomony is over the hill and we are very soon going to be treated to a terrifiying ride on the downside.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency
